A JRC study applies an innovative model to estimate the healthcare workforce needed in the EU until 2071, while taking into account current and future turnover of health professionals, demographic change and healthy ageing. Based on data from 2021, the model allows to make projections for a period of 50 years at individual country and EU level. 

The study Healthcare workforce demand and supply in the EU27 can help national authorities across EU countries to anticipate needs and plan staffing of healthcare services in the long-term to address the demographic challenges of the ageing EU population and the healthcare workforce.

The ageing population in Europe is driving an increased demand for healthcare services, with the proportion of citizens aged 65 and over expected to rise noticeably in the coming decades. This demographic shift, coupled with the concurrent shrinking of the working-age population, is placing an unprecedented strain on healthcare systems.

How will the demand for healthcare professionals evolve?

The results of the study reveal a complex landscape where the demand of doctors and nurses is expected to increase by 2071 due to the ageing of the population, if the health service utilisation and disease prevalence burden remain the same as in 2021. 

The study indicates that if the number of doctors and nurses entering and leaving the profession remains similar to 2021, the number of doctors in the EU would increase by 16% and the number of nurses would increase by 8% by 2071. However, this increase would still fall short of the demand if we consider the ageing of the population, together with trends in public health and the use of public health services. 

The projections indicate that the number of doctors would need to increase by 30% and the number of nurses by 33% to meet the demand, if disease burden remains constant. This demand would decrease considerably in healthy ageing scenarios, where people are in good health in later stages of their lives.

The study shows that if the burden of certain diseases continues to decrease as in the past, it could more than offset the consequences of an ageing population, leading to a reduced need for doctors and nurses in the future. In this regard, the study highlights the important role of healthy ageing in reducing the burden on doctors and nurses while improving the well-being of people in general. 

Read the full article by clicking the below link.

Information and image source: